Early voting turnout is up in runoffs but still abysmal for Texas

Going into Friday, the last day of in-person early voting ahead of Tuesday’s runoff elections, almost 800,000 people had voted in the Democratic and Republican primary runoffs. That is about 200,000 more people than what the state saw going into the final day of early voting in 2022, when both parties last had statewide runoffs in a midterm cycle.

Cornyn narrowly beat Paxton in that initial round, 42% to 41%. Because neither secured an outright majority in the crowded field, the two top vote-getters advanced to a runoff.

Cornyn’s camp has to be happy with the turnout numbers they are seeing in Travis and Dallas counties — two of his best counties during the March contest. Cornyn won both by more than 18 percentage points over Paxton in March, and both counties are now reporting nearly triple the turnout in the Republican runoff from four years ago.

Paxton’s team has to be loving what they are seeing in ruby red counties like Montgomery and Parker. Paxton won both by 10 points over Cornyn, and both are seeing huge turnout despite their smaller size. Montgomery County has less than half of the total voters as Travis County has, yet more than 23,000 people had voted in the runoff by Friday — surpassing the 21,000 that had voted in and around Austin.

The wild card is Harris County. During the March primary, Cornyn narrowly beat Paxton there, 39% to 38%. But that was also U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt’s best county when he was in the race. Hunt, a Houston Republican, won 20% of the vote in Harris. 

Nearly 57,000 votes have already been cast in Harris County, more than any other county — but it’s unclear who that helps Cornyn was born in Houston but largely grew up in San Antonio. Paxton has few Houston ties. Hunt has told his supporters to flip to Paxton.

Turnout on the Democratic side is being driven by hot congressional races in Dallas and Houston. About 38,000 people had voted early as of Thursday in Houston’s primary runoffs, which include a battle for Harris County judge and the 18th Congressional District showdown between U.S. Reps. Christian Menefee and Al Green. That is up by about 6,000 voters compared to four years ago during the last runoffs on the Democratic ballot.